Fears of renewed war with Azerbaijan and ongoing demands from Baku for further Armenian concessions have dominated discussions of Armenia’s future, even as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan insists that the country is entering a new era of security and stability.
In his New Year’s Eve address, Pashinyan proclaimed that Armenia is beginning 2025 in a “significantly more peaceful, stable, and secure environment” than in previous years. He described 2024 as “the most peaceful and calm year for our country in the last twenty years,” attributing this to his administration’s policies and asserting that Armenia is now “more independent, sovereign, and confident.”
Pashinyan highlighted his unilateral concessions to Azerbaijan, including the handover of four disputed border areas last spring. While these actions sparked massive anti-government protests in Yerevan, he described them as a “success story” that has kept Armenia on a trajectory toward peace.
However, many domestic critics argue that these concessions have not secured lasting peace. They claim that Pashinyan’s policies embolden Azerbaijan to demand even more. Following the territorial handovers, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev escalated his rhetoric, calling for Armenia to amend its constitution to remove what he views as territorial claims on Azerbaijan. He also issued new preconditions for an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty, including the return of Azerbaijanis who lived in Soviet Armenia until the late 1980s and a halt to Yerevan’s arms acquisitions.
Aliyev reiterated these demands in his own New Year address, warning Armenia against continuing its military buildup. “Armenia is unable to compete with us either militarily or in any other field,” he declared, citing Azerbaijan’s defense budget, which is nearly three times larger than Armenia’s.
Armenian officials have expressed concerns that Azerbaijan may launch another military offensive after hosting the COP29 climate summit in November. Pashinyan’s administration appears determined to avert such aggression through diplomatic efforts to finalize a peace treaty, even as skepticism about its viability grows within Armenia.
