Two prominent Armenian businessmen have voiced grave concerns over Armenia’s potential exit from the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a prospect raised by Yerevan’s recent decision to pursue European Union membership.
Gagik Tsarukyan, a well-known entrepreneur and former politician, issued a stark warning in an op-ed for Tert.am on Wednesday, highlighting the economic risks of leaving the EEU.
“One wrong step can literally impoverish millions of people,” Tsarukyan wrote. “I’m not trying to scare anyone, but this is the reality. Imagine lost jobs, shuttered businesses, unpaid tuition fees, rising costs for heating and medical care, and a return to the hardships of the 1990s. Do we want to go back to that?”
Tsarukyan also warned that exiting the EEU would block Armenian agricultural products from its markets, sharply increase gas and electricity prices, and trigger inflation across all sectors.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk echoed these concerns shortly after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government approved a bill initiating Armenia’s EU accession process. Overchuk cautioned that leaving the EEU would strip Armenia of tariff-free trade with Russia and lead to higher costs for energy and food.
While Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan stated on Monday that no immediate plans exist to leave the EEU, Finance Minister Vahe Hovannisian did not rule out such a move. Overchuk responded on Wednesday, describing the EU accession bill as the “beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EEU.”
He added that Armenian authorities “understand perfectly well” the hypothetical nature of joining the EU and the risks of losing the economic benefits of EEU membership.
Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire with significant investments in Armenia, also weighed in, urging Yerevan not to prioritize “political ambitions over economic interests.” Karapetyan pointed to Georgia as an example of how politically motivated decisions can destabilize a country.
Despite these warnings, Prime Minister Pashinyan asserted on Wednesday that Armenian-Russian relations remain “practical and mutually beneficial.” Writing on Facebook, he emphasized the importance of developing bilateral ties based on sovereignty and cooperation.
Armenia’s economic dependence on Russia underscores the stakes of any potential shift. Russian trade accounted for over 41% of Armenia’s total foreign trade from January to November 2024, compared to the EU’s 7.5% share. Russia also supplies the bulk of Armenia’s natural gas, sold at $165 per thousand cubic meters—substantially lower than EU wholesale prices, which are currently three times higher.
With these dependencies in mind, any move away from the EEU risks significant economic repercussions, prompting both local and international calls for caution.
