Armenia could face repercussions if it fails to settle its outstanding membership fees with the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a senior Russian diplomat cautioned on Friday.
Since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan effectively suspended Armenia’s participation in the military alliance in early 2024, the country has withheld its financial contributions. Even before that, Yerevan had begun boycotting CSTO meetings, military drills, and other activities.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin told RIA Novosti that Russia and other former Soviet republics in the CSTO “could consider various scenarios” if Armenia does not pay by the end of the year. While he did not specify potential consequences, he noted that Armenia is unlikely to be expelled from the alliance.
Armenia’s freeze on CSTO participation is part of a broader shift in its foreign policy, as Pashinyan moves closer to the West, citing Russia’s and the CSTO’s failure to uphold security commitments.
In September, Pashinyan warned that Yerevan’s ties with its ex-Soviet allies were approaching a “point of no return,” claiming that the CSTO poses an existential threat to Armenia. Moscow rejected the assertion, arguing that Pashinyan remains cautious about a full withdrawal from the bloc. Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Western powers cannot provide Armenia with viable alternatives for security and economic development.
In January, Armenia further signaled its pivot away from Moscow by endorsing a bill advocating eventual European Union accession. This raised questions about its membership in another Russian-led organization, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Moscow warned that Yerevan’s move could mark the beginning of its departure from the trade bloc, which grants Armenian businesses tariff-free access to the Russian market.
Although Armenian officials insist there are no immediate plans to leave the EEU, the Armenian parliament unexpectedly delayed a final vote on the EU-related bill last week. The postponement has fueled speculation that Pashinyan may now be looking to repair relations with Moscow, particularly in light of a possible thaw in U.S.-Russian relations.
