Russia has cautioned that Armenia’s potential bid to join the European Union could devastate its economy, raising concerns over the country’s economic dependence on Russian trade.
On Friday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that Armenia’s EU aspirations could lead to its withdrawal from the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a move that could have dire financial consequences. Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk had previously stated that such a shift would jeopardize Armenia’s access to Russia’s vast market, a critical lifeline for its economy.
“According to some estimates, Armenian exports could shrink by around 80 percent,” Zakharova said. “Higher tariffs on Armenian goods would significantly impact the economy, leading to a sharp decline in GDP growth and potentially widespread impoverishment.”
Overchuk first issued such warnings on January 9, after the Armenian government backed a bill calling for the “start of a process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union.” However, Armenian officials insist that no decision has been made to leave the EEU.
“We feel pretty good in the EEU,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated at a news conference. “The economic figures speak for themselves. However, we also recognize the desire among some Armenians to explore future options for the country.”
Armenia’s parliament, controlled by Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, is set to debate and vote on the bill in February. Pashinyan emphasized that the bill’s passage “does not in itself mean Armenia’s membership in the EU” but did not elaborate on future steps. So far, no EU member state has publicly supported Armenia’s accession bid.
Pashinyan also downplayed concerns over Russia’s reaction. “Russia has some concerns about the process, but our discussions have never been and will never be in the language of threats,” he said, referencing his January 17 phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Official Armenian trade data reveals that Russia accounted for over 41 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade between January and November 2024, whereas the EU’s share stood at just 7.5 percent. Additionally, Armenia relies heavily on Russian natural gas, purchased at below-market rates.
The idea of an EU membership bid first surfaced a year ago amid growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. Armenian opposition leaders have slammed the proposal as reckless, warning that severing economic ties with Russia could severely impact Armenia’s financial stability.
