Russia has issued a stark warning to Armenia, suggesting severe economic repercussions if it pursues membership in the European Union.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that joining the EU would be “incompatible” with Armenia’s membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which provides tariff-free access to Russia’s market. Overchuk warned that Armenia would face higher costs for Russian energy and food and a decline in exports if it exited the EEU.
On Thursday, Armenia’s government approved a draft bill proposing the start of a process to join the EU. The bill, authored by pro-Western political and civic groups, has yet to be debated in parliament. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indicated that, if adopted, the next step would involve discussions with the EU to develop a roadmap, culminating in a national referendum on EU membership.
In a strongly worded statement, Overchuk said Armenia’s potential withdrawal from the EEU would lead to significant economic hardships. “Ordinary people will lose income, jobs, and will pay more for essential goods. In exchange, they may receive visa-free travel and Armenia will face depopulation,” he said.
He added that Armenia would also face higher prices for Russian natural gas, which the country currently imports at $165 per thousand cubic meters—significantly lower than EU wholesale gas prices, which are roughly three times higher.
Russia accounted for 42% of Armenia’s foreign trade between January and October 2024, compared to the EU’s 7.3%. Trade between the two countries has surged since 2022, as Armenian businesses capitalized on Western sanctions against Russia.
Despite the government’s approval of the draft bill, Pashinyan has not explicitly mentioned Armenia’s potential exit from the EEU.
Pashinyan has previously praised the EEU’s role in Armenia’s economic growth. “As recently as December 13, he highlighted the bloc’s contributions to Armenia’s robust economic performance,” noted observers.
Arman Yeghoyan, the chair of the Armenian parliament committee on European integration, acknowledged that Armenia would eventually have to choose between the EU and EEU. “If we enter an EU customs union or sign a free trade agreement like Georgia or Moldova, the issue will inevitably arise,” Yeghoyan said.
Overchuk suggested that Armenia’s choice could come sooner than anticipated. He criticized the absence of a clause in the draft bill stipulating the termination of Armenia’s EEU membership, signaling Moscow’s expectation of a definitive stance from Yerevan.
